Thoughts and Observations

TVGuide’s editor Ausiello posted a blog about NCIS. According to him a major cast member (a regular) will be leaving the show in the 2nd half of season 5, which currently runs on CBS (this week the 2nd half of the season premiered with episode 12).

Here’s what Ausiello wrote:

“Exclusive: NCIS Star Goes AWOL!

There’s another shake-up brewing over at NCIS, only this time it’s happening on screen.

CBS and Paramount declined comment, but sources confirm to me exclusively that a major castmember — a series regular — is on the way out. And as tempted as I am to blab this person’s identity, after much soul searching, I’ve decided that doing so would prove WTS (Way Too Spoilery). And here’s why: The actor in question will exit the series in a dramatic fashion. I might even go so far as to call it a major freakin’ twist, the repercussions of which will be felt well into next season and, perhaps, beyond.

One thing I feel reasonably comfortable letting you know is that the aforementioned twist does, in fact, occur this season — i.e., sometime between tomorrow night’s post-strike return and the season finale in May.” - Link

Of course this is an interesting blog, and Ausiello’s sources are usually right. The regulars in the show are:

Leroy Jethro Gibbs (Mark Harmon)
Anthony DiNozzo (Michael Weatherly)
Abigail ‘Abby’ Sciuto (Pauley Perette)
Donald ‘Ducky’ Mallard (David McCallum)
Ziva David (Cote de Pablo)
Jenny Shepard (Lauren Holly)
Timothy McGee (Sean Murray)
Jimmy Palmer (Brian Dietzen)

It could be that Mark Harmon really wants to leave this time (he wanted out earlier in the show but then Bellisario agreed on being less prominently involved in the show) but my gut says it’s not him. If he really wanted out, he would’ve left earlier. I could be wrong of course, and since Ausiello says it will be felt way into the next season, Gibbs still is a candidate, because as the team leader he’s in important character, and a lot of the show hangs on his personality. He’s not indispensible, but the show would absolutely suffer would he go.

Could it be Tony? I really do hope not, because he’s really becoming my favorite character. He ties all the other characters together, even more than Gibbs or Abby do. Besides, I’m a movie buff too But my feeling says it is him. He’s still coping with his break-up with Jeanne, and there are other things going on with him. Sometimes it seems like he’s getting back to his old self, but he’s also missing things in investigations. Or maybe that’s just me seeing things. I do think it would impact the show greatly if he would be the one to go. Some people say it won’t, but it’s not easy to replace his character, and you need him for balance and cohesion.

Ziva, don’t think it’s her. I just don’t think it would really impact the show. I didn’t like that they replaced Kate with Ziva, like most of the fans back then, but like most of those critical fans, I too, grew accustomed to Ziva and I actually do think she fits in at least just as well as Kate did. But yeah, I don’t think it would impact as much as Ausiello hints at.

McGee, I love the dorky, slightly neurotic, insecure McGee. He’s brilliant, but would the show really suffer when he leaves? I doubt it. I really don’t want him to leave, but I don’t think he will. He’s a great character, but he’s not vital for the show.

Director Shepard, her goodbye itself wouldn’t impact the show, as there would simply come another director. HOWEVER, it could stir up a whole new dynamics if one of the team would be director. Gibbs would most likely become acting director until a decision has been made. Gibbs doesn’t really want to be director, so evidently someone else could move up. Tony? maybe even FBI Agent Fornell (Joe Spano) since he seems to be kinda done with the FBI. Another option is that Gibbs will be the new director and hires Lieutenant-Colonel Mann for NCIS and makes her part of the team. Whatever happens, as long as there’s no outside director and the team stays the team, there definitely is a big impact that can be felt into the next season. And even if there’s an outside director, it could change things within NCIS considerably.

Abby, I would hate for her to leave, but my gut says that if it’s not Tony, it will be Abby. Everyone loves Abby, so it would be a great tragedy if she might die or leave dramatically. The show won’t be the same without her. And it is impossible to really replace her. You can put a new forensic scientist there, but it wouldn’t be the same.

Ducky, maybe? David McCallum is one of my favorite actors, has been for a long time. But even though his character is essential in the show, it’s far from vital. Palmer could just take over. It would impact if Ducky left, but not so hugely that it can be felt waaay in the next season.

And if Palmer left, I think hardly anyone will notice. He’s technically not even a regular.
Of course, the way in which the character that leaves will be written out of the show (murdered, died of disease, becomes a terrorist, takes his/her own life, etc. etc.) will contribute to the impact it makes. In order of what I think could be the one to leave:

1. Tony
2. Abby
3. Jenny
4. Gibbs
5. Ducky

I hope none of these leaves, but if one has to, I hope it’ll be Jenny. I like her, but out of the regulars she’s my least favorite and adds least to the show for me. Well, I’d vote for Palmer first because for the show he doesn’t really matter (though I think Brian Dietzen is doing an incredible job playing him) and since it’s supposed to make an impact, I really don’t think it’s him.

Ah well, let me know what you think.